Market Updates
Weekly Economic Update: November 17, 2025
• Rates increased slightly last week with both the 2-year and 5-year Treasury notes rising by four basis points to 3.61% and 3.69% respectively.
• The government shutdown disrupted October data collection, leaving major reports incomplete—only partial September jobs data will be released, and no inflation report is available.
• The Federal Reserve faces limited data ahead of its December meeting; while earlier rate cuts were expected, recent hawkish signals suggest the likelihood of another cut is now uncertain.
• Small businesses show net job losses in recent months, though large firms continue hiring; layoffs are rising but unemployment claims remain low. Fiscal stimulus and easing trade tensions may support growth into 2026, allowing the Fed to shift focus toward inflation later.
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