Source: US Dept. of Treasury End of Day
• Rates rose last week with the 2-year Treasury note yield increasing by 17 basis points to 3.56% and the 5-year note by 22 basis points to 3.73%.
• February’s employment report triggered a sharp market reaction, with a surprise 92k job loss and rising uncertainty amplified by the ongoing Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices.
• Despite rising unemployment among young college graduates and modest labor softening, broader indicators—prime age employment ratios and wage gains—still point to overall resilience.
• Consumer spending signals are mixed, with January retail weakness overstated by autos, weather, and gas prices; higher tax refunds should cushion Q1 consumption, and the Fed is still expected to hold rates steady in March despite oil driven stagflation risks.
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