Market Updates
Weekly Economic Update: March 31, 2025
• Rates moved lower during the week with the 2-year Treasury note yield falling by four basis points to 3.92% while the 5-year Treasury note decreased by two basis points to 3.99%.
• February’s headline PCE inflation data matched expectations, advancing by a monthly 0.3% and by 2.5% over the trailing 12 months while the core reading accelerated from the prior month, advancing by 0.4% and 2.8%, respectively.
• Real personal spending underwhelmed in February, advancing by 0.1% compared to an expected 0.3% in a sign that consumers may be starting to pull back.
• Real disposable income staged a robust 0.5% increase in February, however, the share of income coming from wages, which has a stronger correlation to discretionary spending, fell below 30% in a sign that the climb in personal income may not translate into consumption.
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