Source: US Dept. of Treasury End of Day
• Rates rose slightly last week with the 2-year Treasury note yield increasing by two basis points to 3.93% and the 5-year note by seven basis points to 4.08%.
• Higher oil, import, and industrial commodity prices tied to disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz are fueling stagflation concerns, leading markets to abandon rate-cut expectations and begin pricing in a possible hike.
• Despite layoff headlines, initial jobless claims remain near historic lows. Hiring, however, has slowed to its weakest pace since 2003, leaving little cushion if energy shocks spread.
• Rising Treasury yields have pushed mortgage rates back above 6.3%, eroding affordability, suppressing demand, and reinforcing a “no buyers, no sellers” environment.
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