Source: US Dept. of Treasury End of Day
• Rates rose last week with the 2-year Treasury note yield increasing by 18 basis points to 3.91% and the 5-year note by 15 basis points to 4.01%.
• The decision to hold rates reflects caution after the Fed’s earlier mistake of underestimating inflation, with officials wary of inflationary pressure from rising oil prices.
• Despite multiple shocks in recent years—pandemic, oil spikes, tariffs, immigration shifts, and now war—the Fed avoided reactive policy mistakes and maintained economic stability.
• Job market fragility persists beneath a low headline unemployment rate, worsened by reduced immigration and subdued labor demand, suggesting weaker underlying economic momentum.
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