Source: US Dept. of Treasury End of Day
• Rates increased last week with the 2-year Treasury note rising by 15 basis points to 4.16% while the 5-year Treasury note increased by 14 basis points to 4.28%.
• Nonfarm payrolls rose by 172 thousand in May, extending a solid three-month stretch of gains.
• Strong jobs data and PMI surveys suggest both manufacturing and services are holding up well despite geopolitical and sentiment-related concerns.
• More than half of industries are adding workers, including manufacturing, while AI-related job losses remain limited and concentrated.
• Long-term unemployment is rising and job searches are taking longer, pointing to growing mismatches in the labor market.
• Pay gains are moderating, limiting inflation risk and supporting the case for the Fed to stay on hold despite strong headline data.
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