Source: US Dept. of Treasury End of Day
• Rates increased last week with the 2-year Treasury note rising by eight basis points to 4.18% while the 5-year Treasury note increased by two basis points to 4.24%.
• First meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh delivered a more hawkish tone than expected, with rates held at 3.50–3.75% but a notable shift away from forward guidance, reinforcing a data-dependent and market-informed policy framework.
• Fed projections now show as many officials expecting hikes as cuts, driving markets to fully price at least one hike this year.
• Strong retail sales and consumer spending support Q2 growth but fading tax refunds and prior real wage pressure could slow momentum.
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