Source: US Dept. of Treasury End of Day
• Rates increased last week with the 2-year Treasury note yield increasing by seven basis points to 3.54% while the 5-year note increased by two basis points to 3.76%.
• Private companies added jobs each month despite challenges, but overall job growth was the weakest since the pandemic, with government layoffs causing an outright decline in payrolls early in the quarter.
• Monthly gains of ~50K jobs are becoming the new normal due to demographic trends and immigration restrictions, keeping unemployment stable at 4.4% despite fewer job seekers.
• Long-term unemployment rose to 26%, job openings fell below job seekers (91 per 100), and competition for jobs is expected to intensify as displaced government workers reenter the workforce.
• Average hourly earnings rose 3.8% YoY in December, outpacing inflation, with gains concentrated in lower-paying sectors like leisure and hospitality and health services—potentially sustaining consumer spending but keeping inflation sticky.
• Click the link below to read more.
