Source: US Dept. of Treasury End of Day
• Rates fell last week with the 2-year Treasury note yield decreasing by three basis points to 3.50% and the 5-year note decreasing by four basis points to 3.76%.
• Robust AI investment by big tech is poised to lift near-term GDP, but disappointment on returns could lead to capex retrenchment, weighing on growth and earnings into year-end.
• JOLTS data show a sharp drop in job openings and historically low hiring, signaling weaker labor demand; layoffs remain limited for now, but leading indicators are turning more concerning.
• Job growth is slowing but unemployment may stay contained short term due to reduced labor supply and upcoming fiscal support; a softer labor market later in the year could prompt the Fed to resume rate cuts.
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