Source: US Dept. of Treasury End of Day
• Rates rose slightly last week with the 2-year Treasury note yield increasing by six basis points to 3.48% and the 5-year note by four basis points to 3.65%.
• Tensions are rising across trade, geopolitics, and economic data, highlighted by a Supreme Court ruling overturning the administration’s emergency‑powers tariffs and prompting a likely policy reset.
• A more hawkish tone in the January Fed minutes, combined with hotter than expected PCE readings, pushed traders to further discount near term rate cuts.
• Despite a headline slowdown in Q4 GDP due to the government shutdown, underlying consumer and business demand remains solid, positioning the economy for a Q1 rebound as cooling inflation and eventual Fed cuts offer additional support.
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