• Rates fell last week with the 2-year Treasury note yield decreasing by eight basis points to 3.42% and the 5-year note decreasing by 15 basis points to 3.61%.
• January’s payroll surge contradicts the “no hiring/no firing” narrative, but gains were narrowly concentrated in health and social services and are unlikely to be sustainable given shrinking labor-force growth.
• Inflation continued to cool in January, and with real wages improving, the Fed can stay patient while the economy works its way back toward 2%.
• Recent December/January data painted a confusing picture—weak year-end activity followed by a strong January rebound, making underlying economic momentum hard to read.
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