Source: US Dept. of Treasury End of Day
• Rates increased last week with the 2-year Treasury note yield increasing by seven basis points to 3.57% and the 5-year note increasing by twelve basis points to 3.72%.
• Backfilled data confirms Q3 trends: above-trend growth early in the quarter, but momentum faded as consumer spending stalled in September.
• Business divergence deepens: large firms expand payrolls and report strong earnings, while small businesses cut jobs and struggle with cost pressures.
• Fed expected to cut rates to support labor market, but sticky inflation (core PCE at 2.8%) and mixed signals may limit further easing beyond December.
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