Source: US Dept. of Treasury End of Day
• Rates fell slightly last week with the 2-year Treasury note yield decreasing by four basis points to 3.49% and the 5-year note decreasing by six basis points to 3.69%.
• November unemployment climbed to 4.6%, while CPI inflation reached 2.7% headline and 2.6% core, surpassing the Fed’s year-end projections ahead of schedule.
• Odds of a January rate cut sit at 20%, and 2-year Treasury yields held steady, reflecting skepticism about both data reliability and Fed response.
• A 43-day government shutdown delayed surveys, creating gaps and downward biases—especially in shelter costs—making November CPI appear softer than underlying trends.
• Private payrolls rose 65K in November, concentrated in health and education; wage growth slowed to 3.5% YoY, the weakest since 2021, as hiring pullbacks erode worker leverage.
• Click the link below to read more.
