• Rates rose last week with the 2-year Treasury note yield rising by 18 basis points to 4.08% while the 5-year note rose by 24 basis points to 4.26%.
• April CPI rose 3.8% YoY with a firm 0.4% core print, signaling energy-driven pressures are increasingly feeding into broader price dynamics.
• The 10-year Treasury yield moved above 4.5%, reflecting rising term premium and growing skepticism around near-term policy easing.
• Retail sales and core spending both rose 0.5%, keeping real consumption on track for ~2% growth in Q2.
• Real wages have turned negative while labor markets remain tight, raising the risk of a delayed wage catch-up that could sustain inflation and prolong restrictive policy.
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