Source: US Dept. of Treasury End of Day
• Rates fell last week with the 2-year Treasury note yield decreasing by eight basis points to 3.53% and the 5-year note decreasing by three basis points to 3.80%.
• Markets avoided disruption as a government shutdown was averted and Kevin Warsh emerged as a less controversial Fed Chair nominee, calming fears of overt political pressure on monetary policy.
• The Fed left rates unchanged after late 2025 cuts, citing stabilizing labor conditions and sticky inflation near 3%, reinforcing a “wait and see” stance through the end of Powell’s term.
• Unemployment has edged lower and layoffs remain low, but hiring is weak, job security has deteriorated, and worker mobility has fallen, even as consumer spending stays resilient due to wealth effects and pending tax relief.
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